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World State Trading
World State Trading

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World State Trading is a publication of The Signal Labs LLC. Content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The Signal Labs LLC is a publisher, not a registered investment adviser or broker-dealer, and nothing here is personalized to your circumstances. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the historical accuracy of published forecasts, not the results of any subscriber.

© 2026 The Signal Labs LLC. All rights reserved.

Research note. Tested on past filings.

Insider buys take time to pay off.

What our tested insider trades that closed over the past quarter showed.

The short version

  • 38 of 55 trades finished higher. That is 69%.
  • The median trade gained 8.8%. The S&P 500 gained 4.5% over the same dates. 31 of 55 trades beat the S&P 500.
  • Ten trading days after an insider buy, the typical trade was level with the S&P 500. By the exit, it was ahead by about 5 points in this sample.
  • When the buyer was the CEO, 17 of 22 trades finished higher, with a median gain of 12.8%.

What the research shows

How the trades did the longer they were held, against the S&P 500 over the same dates. Median figures, in percent.

HeldMedian trade %S&P 500 %
10 trading days+2.6+1.7
30 calendar days+2.1+0.8
60 calendar days+5.6+2.0
90 calendar days+7.7+4.5
To exit+8.8+4.5

Most winners showed early. Of the 38 trades that finished higher, 28 were already up after 10 trading days.

Who was buying mattered. Trades led by a CEO finished higher 77% of the time, with a median gain of 12.8%. Trades led by a director finished higher 67% of the time, with a median gain of 8.7%.

Best and worst

Best trade: PLSE, +132.7%. Worst trade: LENZ, −31.5%. Losing trades stay on the record next to the winners.

What this means for you

Insider buying is a patient signal. In this sample, most of the gain came after the first two weeks. Part of that was the market itself rising.

Read this first

  • These are tested trades, rebuilt from past filings. They were not traded live. Live results start reaching the record on 24 Sept 2026.
  • 55 trades is a small sample, from one strong stretch for stocks. None of the leads over the S&P 500 here is large enough to rule out chance. They could narrow or vanish in a different market.
  • Not investment advice. Past results, tested or live, do not promise future ones.

Tested on past filings. Not investment advice. Past results, tested or live, don’t promise future ones.

See the full record. · Full disclaimer