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FREE REPORT World State Monthly
The insider record: wins and losses across every trade we kept.
See this month's report →On the site: World Watch · Insider buys, filtered · The Record →
Crowd Odds
Prediction markets put a live price on questions the news only argues about. We publish the crowd’s odds beside what our own desk tracks on the same question - where they line up, and where they don’t. The odds are the crowd’s view, never ours. The watching is ours.
These are market-implied odds from public prediction markets. The percentages reflect where real-money traders are placing bets: the crowd’s view, not ours, and we never publish a probability of our own. They shift constantly, they can be wrong, and a thin or disputed market can move on very little. We publish them for context and curiosity. This is not investment advice. Full disclaimer
The few questions with the most money on them get the full treatment: the scenario - what each outcome has touched in past episodes and what to watch between now and resolution - plus a short read of what this week's news says about it. The price is the crowd's. The map and the reading are ours. We never publish odds of our own.
$619K on the table · resolves 2026-12-09 · crowd price, not ours · price as of Nov 4
The desk's registered branch
Bonds quit being quiet. The catch-all: the gauge leaves its declared quiet state, and the desk gets to ask which story it is.
$338K on the table · resolves 2028-01-01 · crowd price, not ours · price as of Nov 4
$105K on the table · resolves 2027-01-01 · crowd price, not ours · price as of Nov 4
$64K on the table · resolves 2027-01-01 · crowd price, not ours · price as of Nov 4
$8M on the table · resolves 2026-11-04 · crowd price, not ours · price as of Nov 4
$4M on the table · resolves 2026-11-04 · crowd price, not ours · price as of Nov 4
$3M on the table · resolves 2026-11-04 · crowd price, not ours · price as of Nov 4
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2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
68%→100%▲ +32
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
31%→0%▼ −30
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
93%→100%▲ +7
A repricing is news the crowd already acted on. We already hold the daily snapshots - this section is pure arithmetic on data in hand.
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Weekly price markets. Closes above: the week, or the named day, ends over the level. Touches: the price reaches the level at any point in the week. Crowd odds, not our forecasts.
The odds on this page are the crowd's, not ours. Below is every topic's prices checked against what actually happened, 30 days out from each market's close.
Politics
2,809 marketsWhen the crowd priced it at 1.9%, it happened 1.5% of the time (1896)
When the crowd priced it at 14.6%, it happened 19.8% of the time (207)
When the crowd priced it at 24.6%, it happened 33% of the time (106)
When the crowd priced it at 34.2%, it happened 36.1% of the time (83)
When the crowd priced it at 44.1%, it happened 40% of the time (60)
When the crowd priced it at 54.9%, it happened 55.9% of the time (59)
When the crowd priced it at 65.5%, it happened 77.4% of the time (53)
When the crowd priced it at 75.4%, it happened 82.2% of the time (73)
When the crowd priced it at 85.5%, it happened 89.7% of the time (78)
When the crowd priced it at 95.8%, it happened 90%+ of the time (194)
Sports
2,260 marketsWhen the crowd priced it at 1.5%, it happened 0.9% of the time (1569)
When the crowd priced it at 14.5%, it happened 13.7% of the time (197)
When the crowd priced it at 24.3%, it happened 24.9% of the time (165)
When the crowd priced it at 34.3%, it happened 41.3% of the time (63)
When the crowd priced it at 45%, it happened 41.5% of the time (53)
When the crowd priced it at 54.9%, it happened 60.4% of the time (48)
When the crowd priced it at 65.1%, it happened 65.3% of the time (49)
When the crowd priced it at 74.7%, it happened 69.6% of the time (46)
When the crowd priced it at 84.2%, it happened 90%+ of the time (22)
When the crowd priced it at 95.7%, it happened 90%+ of the time (48)
Economy
412 marketsWhen the crowd priced it at 1.9%, it happened 1.1% of the time (286)
When the crowd priced it at 14.7%, it happened 19.6% of the time (46)
When the crowd priced it at 24.8%, it happened 35.3% of the time (17)
When the crowd priced it at 35.4%, it happened 33.3% of the time (9)
When the crowd priced it at 47%, it happened 90%+ of the time (1)
When the crowd priced it at 56.8%, it happened 62.5% of the time (8)
When the crowd priced it at 64.2%, it happened 81.8% of the time (11)
When the crowd priced it at 74.7%, it happened 60% of the time (5)
When the crowd priced it at 84.5%, it happened 90% of the time (10)
When the crowd priced it at 95.6%, it happened 90%+ of the time (19)
Crypto
264 marketsWhen the crowd priced it at 2.6%, it happened 1.3% of the time (153)
When the crowd priced it at 14%, it happened 19.4% of the time (31)
When the crowd priced it at 24%, it happened 33.3% of the time (18)
When the crowd priced it at 32.9%, it happened 60% of the time (10)
When the crowd priced it at 45.7%, it happened 40% of the time (5)
When the crowd priced it at 55.6%, it happened 70% of the time (10)
When the crowd priced it at 66.2%, it happened 80% of the time (5)
When the crowd priced it at 76%, it happened 88.9% of the time (9)
When the crowd priced it at 85.1%, it happened 83.3% of the time (12)
When the crowd priced it at 96%, it happened 90%+ of the time (11)
Tech
234 marketsWhen the crowd priced it at 2.2%, it happened 2% of the time (150)
When the crowd priced it at 14.6%, it happened 33.3% of the time (15)
When the crowd priced it at 25.1%, it happened 23.1% of the time (13)
When the crowd priced it at 36.4%, it happened 16.7% of the time (6)
When the crowd priced it at 46.5%, it happened 90%+ of the time (1)
When the crowd priced it at 56.4%, it happened 75% of the time (8)
When the crowd priced it at 66%, it happened 80% of the time (10)
When the crowd priced it at 76.2%, it happened 33.3% of the time (3)
When the crowd priced it at 84.9%, it happened 90%+ of the time (12)
When the crowd priced it at 95.9%, it happened 90%+ of the time (16)
Scored means the market had a real order book 30 or more days before it closed. Of 36,526 markets checked, 14,132 were scored and 6,446 had a clean fixed-horizon checkpoint before close (most of the rest did not have enough price history before closing). Markets checked mid-life run more overconfident (slopes below 1); held out for a clean horizon comparison.
A prediction market lets people trade a contract that pays out if an event happens. The price of that contract is the number on this board. Here is how to read it, and where it can mislead.
Most contracts pay a fixed amount if the event happens and nothing if it does not. The price therefore reads as the crowd's implied probability. For example, a contract trading at 62 cents says the traders collectively put the event near 62 percent. It is a consensus of people willing to back a view with money, not a measured frequency, and it moves as news arrives.
Every market has a best price to buy (the ask) and a best price to sell (the bid). The gap between them is a rough measure of uncertainty and of how few traders are active. A narrow gap means buyers and sellers roughly agree. A wide gap means the quoted probability could sit anywhere inside it, so treat the midpoint as a range, not a point.
A market with few traders and little money behind it can be moved by one large order, or can sit unchanged because nobody is watching. Its price then reflects a handful of opinions rather than a crowd. Check how much is being traded before you lean on a number, and be slower to trust a quote that has not changed in days.
Each contract names a source and a rule for deciding the outcome, such as an official statistic, a published result, or a stated date. Wording matters: two questions that sound alike can resolve differently. Each contract's rules page on Polymarket sets out the exact terms, and it is the final word on how a question settles.
We show market prices as published and record the day we read them. The ladders place those prices next to where the underlying asset trades, and the repricings list shows how far a price moved over the week. The settled-questions table compares what the crowd priced with what happened once a market resolved. These are market prices, not our forecasts, and they are not trading advice.
Odds as of Nov 4, 2026
Odds are market prices, not our forecasts.